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Flood risk estimation via geometric extremal graphical models

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We exploit the new framework of multivariate geometric extreme value theory for the statistical analysis of river flow extremes at multiple locations on a river network. Current methodologies within the geometric framework are limited to a relatively low number of dimensions. This is insufficient for the purposes of flood risk estimation, since the number of gauging stations on a river network is often of the order $10-20+$. In order to create a parsimonious model in higher dimensions, we translate recent theoretical work on geometric extremal graphical models into statistical practice. We define the gauge function, a key object in geometric extremes, in a structured way using block graphs, which are a natural way of expressing the river network. We introduce both simple models, and more complex ones that can accommodate both simultaneous and non-simultaneous flows, and apply them to extreme flows at 10 locations on a river network around Preston, in north-west England. The models are shown to fit well and indicate strong extrapolation performance. We also introduce a correction coefficient for the geometric framework to address potential over- or under-estimation of marginal probabilities. The overall utility of our approach is illustrated through calculation of probabilities of simultaneous flooding at four locations on the network.

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