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Copula-Based Reconstruction and Clustering of Coccidioides Minimum Inhibitory Concentration Profiles

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Coccidioidomycosis is a fungal lung infection endemic to parts of the Pacific Northwest and southwestern United States, Mexico, Central America, and South America. A 2017 study by Thompson et al. reported that many analyzed Coccidioides isolates had elevated minimum inhibitory concentration values for fluconazole but comparatively low minimum inhibitory concentration values for other triazole drugs. We constructed 172 synthetic joint minimum inhibitory concentration profiles from the published drug-specific marginal frequency tables. Values sampled from each marginal distribution were paired across drugs using a Gaussian copula, and potential cross-drug patterns were examined using k-means clustering, hierarchical clustering, and Gaussian mixture models. On the selected reconstruction, a forced four-cluster partition consistently identified an upper caspofungin minimum-inhibitory-concentration tail. Across the evaluated dependence scenarios, the gap statistic favored a single cluster in 96% to 100% of nested reconstructions, providing no evidence that the reconstructed multivariate data supported a broader multicluster structure. A separate simulation study examined recovery of an upper-severity-score category defined from prespecified quantiles of a composite minimum-inhibitory-concentration score. The study included 4,000 replications across 20 prevalence and measurement-noise conditions. The multiclass adjusted Rand index ranged from moderate to high depending on the method and prevalence, whereas binary partition agreement for the upper-severity-score category approached zero at 1% prevalence even though recall remained near 1.0. Clustering conclusions therefore depended on the assumed cross-drug dependence structure and on the realized number of observations in the target category.

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