负载管理悖论:纠正NBA伤害模型中健康-工人生存效应

The Load Management Paradox: Correcting the Healthy-Worker Survivor Effect in NBA Injury Modeling

In professional sports analytics, evaluating the relationship between accumulated workload and injury risk is a central objective. However, naive survival models applied to NBA game-log data consistently yield a paradox: players who recently logged heavy minutes appear less likely to sustain an injury. We demonstrate that this counterintuitive result is an artifact of the healthy-worker survivor effect, wherein conditioning on game participation induces severe collider bias driven by unobserved