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Evaluating the Predictability of Selected Weather Extremes with Aurora, an AI Weather Forecast Model

AI weather foundation models now achieve forecast skill comparable to numerical weather prediction at far lower computational cost, yet their predictability for high-impact extremes across dynamical r...

👤 Qin Huang|Moyan Liu|Yeongbin Kwon|Upmanu... 📰 arXiv 📅 2026 👁 544 📚 45

A Portfolio-Anchored Frequency-Severity Risk Index for Trip and Driver Assessment Using Telematics Signals

In this paper, we propose a novel frequency-severity joint trip-level risk index that combines the frequency of abnormal driving patterns with a severity component reflecting how extreme such behavior...

👤 Jongtaek Lee|Andrei Badescu|X. Sheldon L... 📰 arXiv 📅 2026 👁 131 📚 40

Physics-Informed Diffusion Model for Generating Synthetic Extreme Rare Weather Events Data

Data scarcity is a primary obstacle in developing robust Machine Learning (ML) models for detecting rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones. Traditional data augmentation techniques (rotation, flipping...

👤 Marawan Yakout|Tannistha Maiti|Monira Ma... 📰 arXiv 📅 2026 👁 154 📚 34

The Myth of Restrictive Working-Time Agreements: Firms' Working-Time Adjustment after Exit from Collective Bargaining

Employers in Germany argue that collective agreements restrict their flexibility concerning working hours. Using data from the IAB Establishment Panel for the years 2008 to 2024, we investigate workin...

👤 Vinzenz Pyka | André Rieder 📰 arXiv 📅 2026 👁 177 📚 29

Climate-Driven Mortality Forecasting Using Deep Learning

Climate extremes have become important drivers of mortality, producing sudden spikes that traditional mortality models fail to predict. To address this gap, we propose a two-step modelling framework t...

👤 Kenrick So | Karim Barigou | Jens Robben 📰 arXiv 📅 2026 👁 158 📚 28

Marine Heatwaves in the Arabian Sea: Drivers and Impacts on Atmospheric Circulation and Extreme Precipitation

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) threaten marine ecosystems and significantly impact weather patterns. In the Arabian Sea, summer MHWs are of particular concern due to their potential impacts on the Indian sum...

👤 D. L. Suhas|Weiqing Han|Toshiaki Shinoda... 📰 arXiv 📅 2026 👁 236 📚 27

Assessing global drivers of forest transpiration using clustered machine learning models

Understanding the environmental drivers of forest transpiration is critical for improving global predictions of water availability and ecosystem health. Due to many competing controls on plant water s...

👤 Morgan Thornwell | David Yang | Cheng-We... 📰 arXiv 📅 2026 👁 184 📚 27

Non-Exclusive Notifications for Ride-Hailing at Lyft I: Single-Cycle Approximation Algorithms

Ride-hailing platforms increasingly rely on non-exclusive notifications-broadcasting a single request to multiple drivers simultaneously-to mitigate inefficiencies caused by uncertain driver acceptanc...

👤 Farbod Ekbatani | Rad Niazadeh | Mehdi G... 📰 arXiv 📅 2026 👁 248 📚 25

Coordinating Spot and Contract Supply in Freight Marketplaces

The freight industry is undergoing a digital revolution, with an ever-growing volume of transactions being facilitated by digital marketplaces. A core capability of these marketplaces is the fulfillme...

👤 Philip Kaminsky | Rachitesh Kumar | Roge... 📰 arXiv 📅 2026 👁 226 📚 25

The Uncertain Policy Price of Scaling Direct Air Capture

Direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) is a promising CO2 removal technology, but its deployment at scale remains speculative. Yet, its technological, economic, and policy-related uncertainties...

👤 Leonardo Chiani|Pietro Andreoni|Laurent ... 📰 arXiv 📅 2026 👁 122 📚 24

Principal component error in high-dimensional factor models

In a statistical factor model, principal components (or eigenvectors) of a sample covariance matrix serve as estimates of {\it principal directions}, the true drivers of co-movement of a collection of...

👤 Alex Bernstein | Lisa R. Goldberg | Nich... 📰 arXiv 📅 2026 👁 73 📚 23

Asymmetric Dynamics of Partisan Warriors in YouTube Comments

Cross-cutting commenting on social media is often imagined as a path to deliberation, yet exposure to opposing views frequently fuels hostility. To explain this dynamic, we introduce the concept of pa...

👤 Keyeun Lee | Sang Jung Kim 📰 arXiv 📅 2026 👁 217 📚 21

What Makes a Peer? Valuation-Anchored Similarity in Private Markets

As more investors contemplate private markets and contend with limited transparency, sparse disclosures, and infrequent transactions, identifying economically meaningful peer companies for comparison ...

👤 Sebastian Frank | Jingrao Lyu | Max Jarm... 📰 arXiv 📅 2026 👁 180 📚 20

Integrating Temporal Disaggregation and Distributed Lag Nonlinear Models for Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Disease Mapping with High-Resolution Environmental Exposures

Environmental conditions are major drivers of malaria transmission, but epidemiological analyses are often constrained by temporal misalignment between health outcomes reported at coarse time scales a...

👤 Alejandro Rozo Posada | Maxime Fajgenbla... 📰 arXiv 📅 2026 👁 222 📚 19

The fine structure of electricity price volatility

We conduct the first rigorous study of electricity price volatility for the full panel of electricity prices across three European generation zones. By interpreting the observed day-ahead prices as lo...

👤 Thomas K. Kloster | Fred Espen Benth 📰 arXiv 📅 2026 👁 233 📚 18

Anticipating Continued Global Fertility Decline via Neural Forecasting

The accelerating shift toward low and ultra-low fertility has intensified the debate over whether countries now undergoing rapid decline are approaching stabilization or entering a more persistent low...

👤 Daniel Ciganda | Facundo Morini | Franci... 📰 arXiv 📅 2026 👁 83 📚 17

Drive My Way: Preference Alignment of Vision-Language-Action Model for Personalized Driving

Human driving behavior is inherently personal, which is shaped by long-term habits and influenced by short-term intentions. Individuals differ in how they accelerate, brake, merge, yield, and overtake...

👤 Zehao Wang | Huaide Jiang | Shuaiwu Dong... 📰 arXiv 📅 2026 👁 230 📚 15

Zooplankton spatial patterns along the Ob River continuum: Integrating hydrology, chemistry, and landscape controls.

Large Arctic rivers transport substantial amounts of freshwater, carbon (C), and nutrients from land to the Arctic Ocean and play an important role in continental-ocean biogeochemical coupling. Althou...

👤 Ermolaeva Nadezhda I, Fetter Gleb V, Bar... 📰 Science of The Total Environment 📅 2026 👁 105 📚 10

Stratospheric polar vortex shapes Arctic surface climate via a radiative pathway.

The Arctic stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) is known to influence winter surface climate through dynamical coupling. Here, we demonstrate that beyond this established pathway, variations in SPV streng...

👤 Xia Yan, Xie Fei, Luo Fuhai, Hu Yongyun,... 📰 Nature Communications 📅 2026 👁 76 📚 10

Multi-media antibiotics, intracellular and extracellular antibiotic resistance genes in marine protected areas of the South China Sea: Spatiotemporal distribution and multi-factor drivers of dissemination.

The proliferation of antibiotic resistance in marine ecosystems represents a critical One Health challenge, particularly within coastal habitats that receive anthropogenic inputs. This study presents ...

👤 Bu Chengcheng, Ma Limin, Hua Yu, Xu Shao... 📰 Marine Pollution Bulletin 📅 2026 👁 74 📚 10
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