登录 注册

Estimating the Stochastic Discount Factor from Option Prices and Predicting the Equity Premium

🔗 访问原文
🔗 Access Paper

📝 摘要
Abstract

This paper proposes a stochastic discount factor (SDF) scaled by time-varying volatility. By utilizing prices and market data implied solely from S\&P 500 options, the proposed framework recovers a stable, non-monotonic SDF that captures the pure forward-looking expectations of market participants while mitigating observation noise. Our empirical analysis reveals that the SDF exhibits a distinctive hump on the shallow put side, which transitions into a more clearly defined W-shape as the time to maturity increases, identifying maturity as a key factor influencing the intensity of the central hump. We show that this structural feature can be theoretically rationalized by stochastic volatility dynamics under a constant market price of risk. The equity premium derived from the time-varying volatility scaled SDF demonstrates superior out-of-sample predictive performance relative to existing benchmarks, such as the Martin bounds.

📊 文章统计
Article Statistics

基础数据
Basic Stats

97 浏览
Views
0 下载
Downloads
5 引用
Citations

引用趋势
Citation Trend

阅读国家分布
Country Distribution

阅读机构分布
Institution Distribution

月度浏览趋势
Monthly Views

相关关键词
Related Keywords

影响因子分析
Impact Analysis

6.20 综合评分
Overall Score
引用影响力
Citation Impact
浏览热度
View Popularity
下载频次
Download Frequency

📄 相关文章
Related Articles

海洋智能分析Ocean AI Analysis

正在分析中,请稍候…Analyzing, please wait…
海洋智能体 🌊
海洋智能体
AI科研助手 · 2571篇文献
我看到你正在阅读一篇文献,需要我帮你解读摘要、推荐相关论文,或者分析研究方法论吗?